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At the same time, the causal link between cigarette smoking and major diseases including lung cancer led to the development of control programs designed to discourage initiation and to increase cessation rates. Hence, far fewer estimated lung cancer deaths from smoking by these cohorts would still have been the result. Challenges posed micros publics anal the available NHIS data were a detail for ethnic subgroups; b reliable recall of events that occurred many years before; and c available data on only those who had survived at time of NHIS surveys. These estimates were carried forward after 1954 as estimates of the likely experience of the population of US males if there had been no tobacco control NTC. Splines were used to smooth these estimates, as described in Chapter 2. Models for White Males To begin the process of developing a model for temporal trends in smoking unaffected by tobacco control, we considered the data for white men which represents a population that is somewhat homogeneous ethnically and the number who ever smoked among cohorts born in the late nineteenth and early twentieth century was large enough to provide more stable estimates of smoking cessation rates.

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